NFL Draft betting recap: 'We got killed on Penix going in the top 10'

The NFL Draft odds market represents a rare time when bettors have an edge against the bookmakers. As noted last week, prior to the festivities in Detroit, it’s difficult for sportsbooks to win on NFL Draft betting.

One reason for that: Crazy things tend to happen. Like Michael Penix Jr. getting drafted eighth overall by a team that just signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $100 million deal.

"We got killed on Penix going in the top 10," BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said.

Multiple oddsmakers chimed in on how the books and the bettors did to NFL Draft odds this weekend.

Absolutely Stunned

Prior to Round 1 on Thursday night, Penix was projected to go either late in the first round or early in the second round. Oddsmakers fully expected four quarterbacks — Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy — to go quickly, within the first five picks.

When McCarthy didn’t go at No. 5, the thought process was that the Michigan star would go to the Minnesota Vikings at No. 11 — which actually became the 10th pick, after a trade with the Jets. And from there, the expectation was a wait-and-see on whether Penix or Oregon standout Bo Nix would make the first-round cut.

Instead, the Atlanta Falcons shocked everyone by selecting Penix far higher than any oddsmaker or mock draft projected, at No. 8 overall.

"Just like anybody else who pays close attention to football, I was stunned," Caesars Sports Head of Football Joey Feazel said. "The consensus was that the Falcons were gonna go with defense. They pulled the bunny out of the hat."

Comparisons were made to the Green Bay Packers in the 2020 Draft. Even though Aaron Rodgers was healthy and playing at an MVP level, the Packers took Utah State’s Jordan Love in the first