Man City have title race edge over Arsenal - even if Pep Guardiola doesn't agree

There is a certain sense of deja vu ahead of Sunday's title race showdown at the Etihad, a feeling that Manchester City will remember fondly and one that will sow seeds of doubt in the minds of the Arsenal players.

It is 11 months since Arsenal arrived in Manchester top of the table and looking to end a long wait for a league title. It was a couple of games later in the season than now but their advantage was four points, although the Blues had a game in hand. By the end of a chastening 90 minutes and a 4-1 City win, it felt like the title race was over.

Leaving the Etihad that night, the championship was still in Arsenal's hands but nobody believed they were going to win it. The damage inflicted had been too great. It was the difference between a team of serial winners and a group without that muscle memory to fall back on. Including the defeat to City, Mikel Arteta's side won just three of their final nine league games.

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It was a perfect reminder of just how difficult winning a first title can be for a squad, especially if the weight of history and expectation is heavy. The statistics generally back it up.

In the previous two decades, four clubs have ended long waits to win the Premier League title or won it for the first time. In 2005, Chelsea won their first league crown in 50 years. In 2012 it was City's turn to win the title for the first time in 44 years, then in 2016 it was Leicester City shocking football and winning the league. In 2020 Liverpool ended a 30-year drought of their own.

Three of those triumphs share similar traits and while City are the outliers,